CA END Statistics
NOTE: No prior stats have been removed. This table has been reorganized. Prior stats are available at (LINK). Some decrepancies do occur at times which are beyond our control. The figures below are, for the great majority, from a direct APHIS report we receive. We know that they do not always coincide to the Emergency Management Warnings but do not know why.

* - Due to not receiving the direct APHIS report, these figures come from the Emergency Management Warning of this date. These apparently ceased as of July 16, 2003 and we have seen no further reports on the site.

SPECIAL NOTES of September 18, 2003 (including APHIS revised Sept 18 report):

  • California Birds Killed and Not Tested

    The statistics on our main page were revised only as to change what "may be" the final percentage of birds on PREMISES that were never tested but were killed as they were deemed direct (or dangerous) contacts. There was only a slight variation from what we had previously computed below in Table 1. The APHIS END Weekly Report of September 18, 2003, shows a total of 2498 premises affected, 920 of which were infected (meaning tested) equalling 36.8% and 1578 dangerous contacts equalling 63.2%. This was only a slight difference from the 63.4% percentage that we had computed in Table 1 below. Please note that this "END Weekly Report" is not reproduced on the APHIS web site and is sent by them through email to certain contacts.

    On September 19, 2003, APHIS sent a revised report which changes the total premises affected to 2,426 as infected(tested) 920 (37.9%) and dangerous contacts 1506 (62.1%). We wonder a lot about this revised report since some things don't make much sense on it.

    62-63% of the premises with flocks did not test postive. It is impossible to tell if these birds tested negative for END or were not tested at all. One could assume that later in the eradication process that the birds were indeed negative but were killed merely due to proximity to an infected flock. Surely there will be no stats forthcoming on that.

  • How many CA birds were really killed?

    There is a glaring difference here. The figures seem to just mysteriously jump downward. Reading the CDFA Update - June 16, 2003 you will note it says "3,922,180 birds have been humanely destroyed." From the next CDFA update (Update - June 23, 2003) and forward, this death figure magically changed to 3,016,000. See our CDFA page and look under updates for all the reports which we have retained. Since the APHIS Emergency Management Warnings were all ascending figures that seemed to make some sense, our final killed figure of 3,923,678 agrees with that used in the last EMW of July 16, 2003. You may see all of the EMWs HERE.

  • How many CA backyard birds were really killed?

    We don't have an answer for this. The last stats we have, in Table 3 on May 8, 2003 below, show a total 3,491,655 birds killed and some 141,379 were in the backyard classification. More current media reports mention some 144,000 but this is in connection with gamefowl only. The big question is how many "pet" birds (other than gamefowl) have been slaughtered and one doubts this answer will be forthcoming. Since May 8, 2003, some spent hens had been killed but it is feasible that this accounted for the approximate 500,000 increase in the killed birds figure? We find that doubtful. Additionally, we do not think that some 900,000 birds accounted for the glaring difference in the overall killed figures between APHIS and the CDFA however.

  • How many premises were really under quarantine?

    There is another mystery here. The APHIS END Weekly Report of September 18, 2003 notes that there were 18,435 premises under quarantine. This again is close to the last figures we had computed in Table 3 below of 18,327. Again, CDFA reports do not agree, showing 18,344 on the lastest update of September, 16, 2003.

  • How many commercial premises were affected?

    There were 22 commerical premises affected and while the CDFA reports show them directly, the END Weekly Report of September 18, 2003 shows 21, assuming that the reader knows that 1 of the commercials was included as a dangerous contact. There is no real difference here but unless you have followed this reporting, you may think that there was. The revised report attempted to clarify this.

  • # of Premises Depopulated does not agree with # of Premises Affected on the APHIS END Weekly Report of September 18, 2003

    Original report looks as if there had been a typo saying 2,798 instead of 2,498. Now it's worse and we have no explanation.

  • Did you note a discrepancy in Texas birds killed?

    The END Weekly Report of September 18, 2003 notes that 2,006 birds were killed in Texas. The last EMW report of July 16, 2003 shows 1,871. We have no idea which is correct.

  • How many more discrepancies are there?

    Good question!

  • Where can I find all the reports?

    Many, but not all, of the APHIS Emergency Management Warnings are still on their web site as of this date. We have no idea how long they will be retained but we have kept all of them on this site HERE. The CDFA reports have constantly been removed from their site, so you will only find them archived on our site HERE.



  • TABLE 1
    Total Premises and Testing Percentage by Premises

     
         Date
         Published
    Positive(a)
    Premises
    Increase in(a)
    #       %
    Contact(b)
    Premises
    Increase in(b)
    #       %
    Total (a)+(b) Premises
    Depopulated
    Premises
    Released
    % Premises Tested/Killed
    to Date
    % Premises NOT Tested/Killed
    to Date
    To Date - Birds
    Depopulated
    * 07-16-03 920 - - 1594 7? - 2514 D=2514,W=0 7083 36.6% 63.4% 3,923,678
    * 07-11-03 920 - - 1587 - - 2507 D=2507,W=0 6510 36.7% 63.3% 3,923,432
    * 07-09-03 920 - - 1587 5? - 2507 D=2507,W=0 5420 36.7% 63.3% 3,923,430
    * 07-01-03 920 - - 1582 51? - 2502 D=2502,W=0 3133 36.8% 63.2% 3,923,395
    06-16-03 920 - - 1531 (4)? - 2451 D=2451,W=0 3104 37.5% 62.5% 3,922,180
    06-12-03 920 - - 1535 - - 2455 D=2450,W=5 3066 37.5% 62.5% 3,518,230
    06-09-03 920 - - 1535 4 .02 2455 D=2449,W=6 2943 37.5% 62.5% 3,493,034
    06-05-03 920 - - 1531 2 .01 2451 D=2437,W=17 2823 37.5% 62.5% 3,492,674
    06-02-03 920 2 .2% 1529 15 1% 2449 D=2435,W=14 2823 37.6% 62.4% 3,492,653
    05-29-03 918 - - 1514 8 .5% 2432 D=2423,W=9 2650 37.7% 62.3% 3,492,639
    05-22-03 918 1 .1% 1506 6 .4% 2424 D=2406,W=18 2510 37.9% 62.1% 3,492,408
    05-19-03 917 2 .2% 1500 4 .3% 2417 D=2402,W=15 2497 37.9% 62.1% 3,492,161
    05-15-03 915 - - 1496? 5 - 2411? D=2399,W=12 2452 38.0% 62.0% 3,492,142
    05-12-03 915 2 - 1491? 6 - 2406? D=2398,W=8 2197 38.0% 62.0% 3,492,123
    05-05-03 913 - - 1485? 4 .8 2398? D=2389,W=9 485 38.1% 61.9% 3,491,655
    05-01-03 913 1 - 1481? ? ? 2394? D=2377,W=17? 348 ? ? 3,491,418
    04-28-03 912 (6) - 1537 12 .7% 2449 D=2429,W=20 137 37.2% 62.8% 3,491,154
    04-24-03 918 21? ? 1515 (10) ? 2433 D=2405,W=28 ? 37.7% 62.3% 3,519,543
    04-21-03 888 (3) ? 1533 (7) ? 2420? D=2375,W=45 99 36.7% 63.3% 3,460,028
    04-18-03 891 1 .1% 1540 5 .3% 2431 D=2386,W=45 96 36.7% 63.3% 3,457,755
    04-17-03 890 1 .1% 1535 (2) - 2425 D=2377,W=48 96 36.7% 63.3% 3,456,927
    04-16-03 889 2 .2% 1537 2 .1% 2426 D=2376,W=50 92 36.6% 63.4% 3,456,927
    04-15-03 887 3 .3% 1535 1 - 2422 D=2374,W=48 92 36.6% 63.4% 3,455,751
    04-14-03 884 3 .3% 1534 1 - 2418 D=2372,W=46 90 36.6% 63.4% 3,455,610
    04-11-03 881 - - 1533 - - 2414 D=2369,W=45 83 36.5% 63.5% 3,455,284
    04-10-03 881 1 .1% 1533 (2) - 2414 D=2364,W=50 83 36.5% 63.5% 3,455,269
    04-08-03 880 - - 1535 - - 2415 D=2357,W=55? 83 36.4% 63.6% 3,454,970
    04-07-03 880 - - 1534 (3) - 2414 D=2358,W=56 83 36.5% 63.5% 3,454,970
    04-04-03 880 2 .2% 1537 (4) - 2417 D=2349,W=68 80 36.4% 63.6% 3,454,786
    04-03-03 878 - - 1541 (1) - 2419 D=2344,W=75 78 36.3% 63.7% 3,454,482
    04-02-03 878 - - 1542 (4) (.2%) 2420 D=2331,W=89 78 36.3% 63.7% 3,329,055
    04-01-03 878 2 .2% 1546 - - 2424 D=2326,W=98 78 36.2% 63.8% 3,328,967
    03-31-03 876 - - 1546 6 .4% 2422 D=2317,W=105 79 36.2% 63.8% 3,328,628
    03-28-03 876 5 .5% 1540 - - 2416 D=2308,W=108 79 36.3% 63.7% 3,272,222
    03-27-03 871 5 .6% 1540 (4) (.3%) 2411 D=2304,W=107 79 36.1% 63.9% 3,271,332
    03-26-03 866 1 .1% 1544 4 .3% 2410 D=2306,W=104 79 35.9% 64.1% 3,271,284
    03-25-03 865 3 .3% 1540 3 .2% 2405 D=2301,W=104 78 36.0% 64.0% 3,268,076
    03-24-03 862 8 .9% 1537 8 .5% 2399 D=2286,W=113 78 35.9% 64.1% 3,267,532
    03-21-03 854 6 .7% 1529 - - 2383 D=2264,W=119 74 35.8% 64.2% 3,250,358
    03-19-03 848 3 .4% 1529 6 .4% 2377 D=2231,W=146 73 35.7% 64.3% 3,175,266
    03-18-03 845 8 1.0% 1523 4 .2% 2368 D=2212,W=156 73 35.7% 64.3% 3,174,078
    03-17-03 837 10 1.2% 1519 10 .7% 2356 D=2207,W=149 73 35.5% 64.5% 3,173,853
    03-14-03 827 1 .1% 1509 - - 2336 D=2170,W=166 73 35.4% 64.6% 3,123,071
    03-13-03 826 7 .9% 1509 2 .1% 2335 D=2165,W=170 70 35.4% 64.6% 3,122,531
    03-12-03 819 9 1.1% 1507 5 .3% 2326 D=2133,W=193 69 35.2% 64.8% 3,122,157
    03-11-03 810 10 1.3% 1502 (3) .2% 2312 D=2116,W=196 69 35.0% 65.0% 3,121,779
    03-10-03 800 31 4.0% 1505 (11) .7% 2305 D=2110,W=195 69 34.7% 65.3% 3,121,628
    03-07-03 769 6 .8% 1516 2 - 2285 D=2054,W=231 68 33.6% 66.4% 3,118,858
    03-06-03 763 12 1.6% 1514 1 - 2277 D=2030,W=247 67 33.5% 66.5% 3,117,773
    03-05-03 751 7 .9% 1513 13 .9% 2264 D=1989,W=275 ? 33.2% 66.8% 3,116,300
    03-04-03 744 - - 1500 16 .3% 2249 D=1929,W=320 ? 33.2% 66.8% 3,114,908
    03-03-03 744 15 2.1% 1484 1 - 2228 D=1915,W=313 12 33.4% 66.6% 3,114,898
    03-01-03 729 12 1.1% 1483 52 3.6% 2212 D=1903,W=309 12 32.0% 67.% 2,680,365
    02-28-03 721 12 1.7% 1431 131 10.1% 2152 D=1890,W=262 -0- 33.5% 66.5% 2,564,040
    02-27-03 709 5 .7% 1300 1 -- 2009 D=1851,W=158 -0- 35.3% 64.7% 2,485,461

    TABLE 2
    Total Cases by County

     
         Date
         Published
    Los Angeles San Bernardino Riverside Orange San Diego Ventura Total
    04-18-03 428 941 1,029 2 28 3 2431
    04-17-03 423 940 1,029 2 28 3 2425
    04-16-03 423 940 1,030 2 28 3 2426
    04-15-03 421 940 1,028 2 28 3 2422
    04-14-03 419 940 1,026 2 28 3 2418
    04-11-03 417 940 1,024 2 28 3 2414
    04-10-03 417 940 1,024 2 28 3 2414
    04-08-03 416 941 1,025 2 28 3 2415
    04-07-03 415 941 1,025 2 28 3 2414
    04-04-03 414 941 1,029 2 28 3 2417
    04-03-03 415 941 1,031 2 28 released 2417?(s/b2419)
    04-02-03 415 942 1,031 2 28 released 2418?(s/b2420)
    04-01-03 417 944 1,031 2 24 released 2418?(s/b2424)
    03-31-03 417 944 1,031 2 28 released 2422
    03-28-03 417 943 1,028 2 24 released 2414?(s/b2416)
    03-27-03 415 942 1,028 2 24 released 2411
    03-26-03 415 942 1,028 2 23 released 2410
    03-25-03 410 942 1,028 2 23 released 2405
    03-24-03 406 942 1,026 2 23 released 2399
    03-21-03 398 941 1,019 2 23 released 2383
    03-19-03 397 941 1,015 2 22 released 2377
    03-18-03 397 939 1,008 2 22 released 2368
    03-17-03 397 933 1,003 2 21 released 2356
    03-14-03 395 924 995 2 20 released 2336
    03-13-03 395 924 995 2 18 1 2335
    03-12-03 395 922 990 2 16 1 2326
    03-11-03 392 920 982 2 15 1 2312
    03-10-03 392 919 976 2 15 1 2305
    03-07-03 390 912 968 2 12 1 2285
    03-06-03 387 920 957 2 10 1 2277
    03-03-03 387 906 926 2 6 1 2212
    03-01-03 387 890 926 2 6 1 2212
    02-28-03 382 887 874 2 6 1 2152
    02-27-03 382 887 731 2 6 1 2009

    TABLE 2A
    Total CURRENT Cases by County

     
         Date
         Published
    Kern Los Angeles San Bernardino Riverside Orange San Diego Ventura Total
    06-09-03 ? ? ? ? ? ? ? no stats
    06-05-03 0 18 35 48 0 10 0 111
    06-02-03 0 22 30 49 0 10 0 111
    05-29-03 0 25 108 213 0 10 0 356?
    05-22-03 4 46 170 471 0 10 3 704
    05-19-03 4 44 170 472 0 10 3 703
    05-15-03 4 42 169 473 0 10 3 701
    05-12-03 3 43 180 485 0 6 3 720
    05-08-03 3 60 216 546 0 7 3 835?
    05-05-03 - 61 380 678 0 7 3 1129

    TABLE 3
    TF Staff, Quarantined Premises, Backyard/Commerical Killed

     
         Date
         Published
    TF
    Personnel
    Premises Under
    Quarantine
    (Cummulative)
    Premises Under
    Quarantine (Q)
    (Current)
    Increase in (Q)
    (Current)
     
    #           %
    Premises
    Released
    Backyard
    # Premises                     Killed
    Commercial
    # Premises      Killed
    To Date - Birds
    Depopulated
    * 07-16-03 642 18,427 11,206 (707) 5.9% 7083 D=2492,W=0 no stats? 22 3,197,461 3,923,678
    * 07-11-03 665 18,425 11,913 (528) 4.2% 6510 D=2485,W=0 no stats? 22 3,197,461 3,923,432
    * 07-09-03 723 18,421 12,441 (678) 5.1% 5420 D=2485,W=0 no stats? 22 3,197,461 3,923,430
    * 07-01-03 665 18,419 13,119 (1966) 13.0% 3133 D=2480,W=0 no stats? 22 3,197,461 3,923,395
    06-16-03 829 18,189 15,085 (19) .1% 3104 D=2429,W=0 no stats? 22 3,197,461 3,922,180
    06-12-03 870 18,170 15,104 (110) .7% 3066 D=2428,W=5 no stats? 22 3,197,461 3,518,230
    06-09-03 939 18,157 15,214 (509) 3.2% 2943 D=2427,W=6 no stats? 22 3,197,461 3,493,034
    06-05-03 900+? 18,146 15,723 715 4.7% 2823 D=2412,W=17 no stats? 22 3,197,461 3,492,674
    06-02-03 923 17,831 15,008 (90) (.6%) 2823 D=2413,W=14 no stats? 22 3,197,461 3,492,653
    05-29-03 969 17,748 15,098 88 .5% 2650 D=2401,W=9 no stats? 22 3,197,461 3,492,639
    05-22-03 ? 17,522 15,010 48 .3% 2510 D=2384,W=18 no stats? 22 3,197,461 3,492,408
    05-19-03 ? 17,459 14,962 104 .7% 2497 D=2380,W=15 no stats? 22 3,197,461 3,492,161
    05-15-03 ? 17,287 14,858 (220) (1.5%) 2452 D=2377,W=12 no stats? 22 3,197,461 3,492,142
    05-12-03 1,027 17,275 15,078 71 - 2197 D=2398,W=8 no stats? 22 3,197,461 3,492,123
    05-08-03 1,101 17,155 15,007 (1643) (10%) 2147 D=2369,W=15 141,379? 22 3,197,461 3,491,655
    05-05-03 1,013 17,135 16,650 (70) (.4%) 485 D=2367,W=9 141,376? 22 3,197,461 3,491,655
    05-01-03 1,034 17,068 16,720 (143) (.8%) 348 D=2355,W=17 141,039? 22 3,197,461 3,491,418
    04-28-03 1,025 17,000 16,863 121 .7% 137 2427 ? 22 ? 3,491,154
    04-24-03 1,045 16,742 16,742 400 2.4% ? 2411 ? 22 ? 3,519,543
    04-21-03 1,106 16,342 16,342 98 .6% 99 2408? ? 22? ? 3,460,028
    04-18-03 ? 16,244 16,244 31 .2% 96 D2364+W44=2408? 139,425? 22(W=1) 3,193,461 3,457,755
    04-17-03 1,133 16,213 16,213 22 .1% 96 D2355+W48=2403 138,635? 22(W=1) 3,193,461 3,456,927
    04-16-03 ? 16,191 16,191 22 .1% 92 D2355+W49=2404 138,597? 22(W=1) 3,193,461 3,456,927
    04-15-03 1,117 16,169 16,169 41 .2% 92 D2353+W47=2400 137,421? 22(W=1) 3,193,461 3,455,751
    04-14-03 ? 16,128 16,128 55 .3% 90 D2351+W45=2396 137,280? 22(W=1) 3,193,461 3,455,610
    04-11-03 ? 16,073 16,073 44 .3% 83 D2348+W44=2392 136,954? 22(W=1) 3,193,461 3,455,284
    04-10-03 1,121 16,029 16,029 85 .5% 83 D2343+W49=2392 136,939? 22(W=1) 3,193,461 3,455,269
    04-08-03 1,213 15,944 15,944 92 .6% 83 ?D2336+W54=2390 136,640? 22(W=1) 3,193,461 3,454,970
    04-07-03 ? 15,852 15,852 322 2.1% 83 D2337+W55=2392 136,640? 22(W=1) 3,193,461 3,454,970
    04-04-03 ? 15,530 15,530 91 .6% 80 D2328+W68=2396 136,456? 22(W=1) 3,193,461 3,454,786
    04-03-03 1,327 15,439 15,439 44 .3% 78 D2323+W74=2397 136,152? 22(W=1) 3,193,461 3,454,482
    04-02-03 ? 15,395 15,395 65 .4% 78 D2311+W87=2398 135,594? 22(W=2) 3,162,471 3,329,055
    04-01-03 1,272 15,330 15,330 48 .3% 78 D2306+W96=2402 135,506? 22(W=2) 3,162,471 3,328,967
    03-31-03 ? 15,282 15,282 223 1.5% 79 D2297+W103=2,400 135,617 22(W=2) 3,162,471 3,328,628
    03-28-03 1,343 15,059 15,059 137 .9% 79 D2286+W108=2,394 134,749 22(W=2) 3,137,471 3,272,222
    03-27-03 ? 14,922 14,922 53 .4% 79 D2284+W105=2,389 133,861 22(W=2) 3,137,471 3,271,332
    03-26-03 ? 14,869 14,869 55 .4% 79 D2286+W103=2,389 133,813 21(W=1) 3,137,471 3,271,284
    03-25-03 1,357 14,814 14,814 86 .6% 78 D2281+W103=2,384 130,605 21(W=1) 3,137,471 3,268,076
    03-24-03 ? 14,728 14,728 375 2.6% 78 D2266+W112=2,378 130,061 21(W=1) 3,137,471 3,267,532
    03-21-03 1,335 14,353 14,353 420 3.0% 74 D2245+W117=2,362 128,628 21(W=3) 3,101,730 3,250,358
    03-19-03 1,304 13,933 13,933 134 1% 73 D2213+W143=2,356 127,813 21(W=3) 3,047,453 3,175,266
    03-18-03 ? 13,799 13,799 65 .5% 73 D2194+W154=2,348 126,625 20(W=2) 3,047,453 3,174,078
    03-17-03 ? 13,734 13,734 425 3.2% 73 D2189+W147=2,336 126,400 20(W=2) 3,047,453 3,173,853
    03-14-03 ? 13,309 13,309 102 .7% 73 D2149+W166=2,317 124,368 19(W=2) 2,998,703 3,123,071
    03-13-03 1,481 13,207 13,207 216 1.7% 70 D2148+W168=2,316 123,828 19(W=2) 2,998,703 3,122,531
    03-12-03 ? 12,991 12,991 54 .4% 69 D2116+W193=2,309 123,454 17 2,998,703 3,122,157
    03-11-03 1,448 12,937 12,937 82 .7% 69 D2099+W196=2,295 123,076 17 2,998,703 3,121,779
    03-10-03 ? 12,855 12,855 152 1.2% 69 D2090+W198=2,288 122,925 17 2,998,703 3,121,628
    03-07-03 ? 12,703 12,703 76 .6% 68 D2037+W231=2,268 120,155 17 2,998,703 3,118,858
    03-06-03 1,372 12,627 12,627 420 3.4% 67 D2013+W247=2,260 119,070 17 2,998,703 3,117,773
    03-05-03 ? ? ? ? ? ? D1972+W275=2,247 117,597 17 2,998,703 3,116,300
    03-04-03 1,317 12,207 12,207 224 1.9% ? D1912+W320=2,232 116,205 17 2,998,703 3,114,908
    03-03-03 ? 11,983 11,983 124 1.1% 12 D1898+W313=2,211 116,195 17 2,998,703 3,114,898
    03-01-03 ? 11,859 11,859 202 1.7% 12 D1888+W307=2,195 114,562 17 2,565,803 2,680,365
    02-28-03 ? 11,657 11,657 240 2.1% -0- 2,135 112,372 17 2,451,668 2,564,040
    02-27-03 1,386 11,417 11,417 86 .7% -0- 1,992 109,793 17 2,375,668 2,485,461

    TABLE 4
    Currently Affected Premises Stats

         Date
         Published
    Positive
    Premises
    Dangerous
    Contacts
    Total
     
    Backyard
    Flocks
    Commercial
    Flocks
    * 07-16-03 1 4 5 4 1
    * 07-11-03 5 4 9 4 5
    * 07-09-03 6 4 10 4 6
    * 07-01-03 10 5 15 5 10
    06-16-03 13 8 21 7 14*
    06-12-03 39 16 55 40 15*
    06-09-03 39 16 55 40 15*
    06-05-03 71 40 111 95 16*
    06-02-03 62 49 111 95 16*
    05-29-03 277 60 337 320 17*
    05-27-03 342 314 656 638 18*
    05-22-03 390 314 704 686 18*
    05-19-03 389 314 703 685 18*
    05-15-03 388 331 701 683 18*
    05-12-03 371 349 720 701 19*
    05-08-03 458 376 834 812 22
    05-05-03 853 686 1539 1517 22

    * Commerical Infected Premises Closed on this report.



    NOTE: No prior stats have been removed. This table has been reorganized. Prior stats are available at (LINK). Some decrepancies do occur at times which are beyond our control The tables often do not tie in with each other as they should but that is the fault of the underlying report(s).


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